EXPERT Q&A — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington D.C. on Monday to meet with President Donald Trump at the White House — their third meeting this year. Netanyahu’s visit follows the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran last month. Two items are at the top of Trump’s agenda for the meeting: a ceasefire deal on Gaza, and a nuclear deal with Iran.
Before Netanyahu touched down in the U.S., The Cipher Brief spoke with Ambassador Gary Grappo, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Oman and Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, to discuss the dynamics and outcomes he is on the lookout for at the Trump-Netanyahu meeting. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full discussion on The Cipher Brief YouTube Channel.
The Cipher Brief: What are you going to be looking for as this meeting unfolds?
Ambassador Grappo: The last time the president and Mr. Netanyahu met, it was very much a Trump-dominated visit. They had a public event in which Mr. Netanyahu shockingly spoke very, very little and even seemed a bit submissive. I’ll be interested to see how that dynamic plays out in this visit. I expect it to be very, very different. And secondly, looking at the actual specifics, what comes out of this, what they discuss, what are the issues that they focus on and address, the circumstances of this visit, of course, are very, different from Mr. Netanyahu’s previous visits to the White House since Trump took office.
The Cipher Brief: We know President Trump is very much interested in a deal on the war in Gaza, and also vis-a-vis Iran. It does seem that Prime Minister Netanyahu may be a little less eager. Let’s talk about Gaza first. The U.S. hasn’t had much success in this administration or the Biden administration before it in pressuring or using its leverage against Israel to get any changes in terms of the prosecution of that war. Do you think it’s a different circumstance now?
Ambassador Grappo: It is a different circumstance. Certainly the dynamic in Gaza has changed very, very little since the last time they met. The Israelis unquestionably hold the upper hand. They literally control between 60-70 percent of the territory of Gaza. They’re continuing their efforts to root out Hamas throughout the territory, as challenging as that is now since they’re more dispersed, deeply hidden and it’s requiring that the IDF to employ different tactics than they may have earlier on in the war.
But what has really changed is Iran and what has taken place in Iran over the course of the last month to six weeks, with Iran now greatly weakened. Its threat in terms of its nuclear weapons is much diminished thanks primarily to the efforts of the Israelis, but also to the United States and specifically the decision of Donald Trump to enter the war as he did with the dropping of those bunker buster bombs. So there’ll be a bit of a good feeling coming out of that, and deservedly so for both sides. And that is going to factor in, I think, into the conversation they have about Gaza.
The Cipher Brief: Is it essentially that Trump may feel the U.S. did what Israel had been asking us to do for some time with those bunker busters against Iran, and now we’d like Israel to come to the table and push the Gaza deal over the line, assuming, of course, that Hamas is OK with some of those final provisions? Is that the game here?
Ambassador Grappo: That’s certainly one factor here. Donald Trump did jump into a fray that he initially was very reluctant to join — he had said so publicly before Israel started its first series of attacks on Iran earlier in June. There’ll be something of that in Donald Trump’s conversation with Bibi, but also the fact that now with the great danger tamed in Iran, Bibi has much more room for maneuver, including from right-wing members who have threatened to leave his coalition unless he followed a pretty hard-line approach to Gaza, but also Iran. They may be less of a threat now, given the fact that the threat from Iran has diminished.
And there’s a third factor here, and Donald Trump has hinted to this in the last week to 10 days, and that is the charges hanging over Bibi Netanyahu’s head. Donald Trump has intimated making a statement that these charges should be dismissed. Mr. Trump is very, very popular in Israel, and if he’s making statements like this, which is inserting himself into the judicial process in Israel in a very direct way, it can have a very telling effect on Netanyahu’s right wing — even if they threaten to leave, Mr. Netanyahu may stand a better chance in any elections which might result from the collapse of his coalition.
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The Cipher Brief: Let’s go to Iran. Donald Trump would love what he would consider a good deal with Iran. Netanyahu and that right flank, not so much.
Ambassador Grappo: No, not at all. Trump very, very much fears getting drawn into another Middle East war and to allow the Israelis to press the advantage, which they may very well do even without the United States. There’s the fear that once again, the Americans may be drawn into the conflict, particularly given the likelihood that the Iranians are going to move to expedite the development of their weapons program, whatever its current state may be. And there seems to still be some question about how much of the more highly enriched uranium they have, how many centrifuges they may still have and where they are located, which could require another American intervention. And I think Trump is fearful of that.
The Cipher Brief: The question of the Trump administration’s leverage is interesting. I was struck by the fact that during that period when a ceasefire was first agreed to, to end this recent 12-day campaign in Iran, there was a moment when President Trump took to social media to say to the Israelis, stop those bombers. It does seem like at least for the short term, he’d like the Israelis to lay low, right?
Ambassador Grappo: Absolutely. Don’t forget Mr. Trump has his right wing to answer to as well. It was known from the outset that some of his more hardline supporters were very much opposed to the American intervention in Iran and still are despite the obvious success of the American involvement. They really would like to see us close the book on our intervention there because they also see a real danger of the Americans being further entrapped, they would say, in another Middle East war if the Israelis decide, as you say, to press the advantage.
The Cipher Brief: We spoke soon after President Trump had announced his arrangement under which the U.S. would take control in Gaza. Whatever happened to that?
Ambassador Grappo: It has been forgotten, but I think it’s been put on the shelf, which in fact has become a library of plans for settling the Israeli-Palestinian dispute that never get implemented. I just don’t see it as a possibility. What we’re currently discussing is a ceasefire, and there are some signs that Hamas may be taking it a little more seriously than they have previously. The Israelis have indicated their willingness to accept it, although I’m sure there are some caveats. But what the administration would like to see is the ceasefire go into effect with assurances provided by the United States that negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict would continue during this 60-day period. And I’m not sure the Israelis are prepared to agree to that. I’ll have to see. I’m sure that’ll be a discussion point when they meet.
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The Cipher Brief: What’s the Saudi factor here?
Ambassador Grappo: The Saudis will be following this very, very closely, most especially because of the Iran factor. They do not want to see a continuation of an active conflict in Iran. So they will be hoping that the president can keep the lid on that.
And then secondly, for Mr. Trump, [the normalization of Israeli-Saudi ties] still remains his ace in the hole. This is something that Bibi Netanyahu very, very much wants to have — it would be a signature achievement, but that’s going to require an acceptable solution to the war in Gaza. And so that’s an ace in the hole for Trump if he decides to play it, if he has spoken at all with the Saudis about this possibility. They have previously indicated their hesitancy to enter into any normalization talks without a clear path toward a Palestinian state. They might be willing to accept some general verbiage around that point without necessarily committing to a Palestinian state in terms of a time frame. But they very much want to see an end to this war and a change in the predicament of the Palestinian people of Gaza who still remain suffering, huddled up in a very, very small area with food shortages, even famine and starvation in some areas. A massive humanitarian effort is going to be necessary.
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