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When voters think of student loan forgiveness, they often picture executive actions and legal battles. Under President Biden, student loan debt relief efforts dominated headlines, particularly after the Supreme Court struck down his broad cancellation proposal.
But what you may not realize: The Trump administration could be on track to oversee one of the largest dollar amounts of student loan forgiveness in U.S. history, largely because of repayment programs already written into law.
This projection is not about a new sweeping forgiveness plan. Instead, it reflects the mechanics of existing federal student loan programs (some dating back decades) that are now reaching maturity.
And it’s going to be close:
Looking Back: Biden’s Record-Setting Loan Forgiveness Campaign
President Biden entered office pledging student debt relief. While his proposed one-time cancellation of up to $10,000 or $20,000 per borrower was invalidated by the Supreme Court, his administration expanded and streamlined several existing forgiveness pathways.
The Biden administration approved roughly $188 billion in federal student loan forgiveness for about 5 million borrowers. That total includes relief under:
The dollar amount ($188 billion) is the benchmark against which future administrations will be measured.
The Loan Forgiveness Pipeline Under Trump $170 Billion And Counting
Donald Trump has often criticized broad-based student loan cancellation. However, if current trends continue, his administration could preside over roughly $171.4 billion in forgiveness, without creating any new forgiveness programs.
Here’s how that figure breaks down:
1. Public Service Loan Forgiveness: $116.5 Billion
Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) allows borrowers working in qualifying public service jobs (including teachers, nurses, and government employees) to have their remaining federal loan balances forgiven after 120 qualifying monthly payments, typically 10 years.
Based on the most recent PSLF data:
- About 1.3 million borrowers are currently on track to receive PSLF forgiveness during Trump’s second presidency.
- Their combined outstanding balance totals roughly $116.5 billion (based on current averages).
These borrowers are already on track with the necessary qualifying employment and payment history. The forgiveness would occur automatically once the 120-payment threshold is reached and paperwork is processed.
This is not new policy. PSLF was created in 2007 with bipartisan support. The forgiveness now expected reflects borrowers who entered public service more than a decade ago and are finally reaching the statutory milestone.
The timing is important to realize – especially when comparing old headlines about denial rates. While PSLF started in October 2007, it takes 10 years. But also, loans in 2007 weren’t generally eligible. It was until the Direct Loan Program took over all borrowing in 2009 that all loans were eligible. Then, you have 10 years of eligible repayment. Borrowers who took a loan in 2009 wouldn’t have started repayment until late 2013. Fast forward 10 years, and you get the first major waves in 2023.
That trend has continued, as the program became more popular throughout the 2015-2020 period. Those borrowers are finally reaching their 10 year mark.
2. Borrower Defense To Repayment: $7.5 Billion
Borrower Defense to Repayment allows students to seek discharge of federal loans if their schools misled them or engaged in misconduct. In a FOIA request The College Investor team submitted last year, the data through 2023 shows that over 760,000 borrower defense claims had been received, with nearly 60% remaining unprocessed.
While borrower defense processing slowed significantly during prior administrations and remains uneven, estimates suggest:
- Roughly 400,000 borrowers still have applications pending or likely to qualify.
- Their collective balance could total approximately $7.5 billion.
This includes the automatic discharge that may be happening as the result of Sweet v. McMahon (previously Sweet v. Cardona).
If these applications are resolved during Trump’s presidency, that amount would add to the administration’s forgiveness total, even if the policy framework itself remains unchanged.
The amount of debt discharged here could also be significantly higher. The Biden Administration, despite their slow processing, still processed $34.5B in Borrower Defense Claims.
3. Income-Driven Repayment Plans: $28.8 Billion
The most significant variable may be income-driven repayment plans, particularly older plans such as:
Under these programs, borrowers make payments based on income for 20 or 25 years. After that period, any remaining balance is forgiven.
Following recent payment count adjustments and administrative fixes, forgiveness under these plans has accelerated.
Based on the latest processing data:
- Approximately 20,000 borrowers per month may be reaching 20- or 25-year forgiveness thresholds.
- Over a four-year presidential term, that could total roughly 720,000 borrowers.
- If the average remaining balance is around $40,000 per borrower, that equates to approximately $28.8 billion in student loan forgiveness.
Unlike PSLF, which targets public service workers, IDR forgiveness applies broadly to borrowers who have made decades of income-based payments, often those who struggled with low earnings relative to their debt.
4. Other Programs: $18.6B
There are other smaller programs that consistently provide student loan forgiveness and the volume of loan forgiveness doesn’t change much year to year.
This include Death Discharge, Total and Permanent Disability, and identity-theft related claims.
We estimate that the Trump Administration will match the Biden Administration over their four years, amounting to roughly $18.7 billion in loan forgiveness for roughly 633,000 borrowers.
That amounts to about $4.7B forgiven for around 150,000 people/families per year.
So, Could Trump Surpass Biden’s Record?
Maybe… it will be close.
Based strictly on current pipelines and estiamtes:
- PSLF: $116.5 billion
- Borrower defense: $7.5 billion
- IDR forgiveness: $28.8 billion
- Other: $18.7 billion
Total projected: $171.4 billion
That figure falls short of Biden’s $188 billion – but not by much…
However, several factors could push totals higher:
- Additional borrower defense settlements.
- Higher average IDR balances than the $40,000 estimate.
- Policy decisions that streamline forgiveness administration.
Whether Trump ultimately surpasses Biden’s dollar total is to be seen.
The Bottom Line
Student loan forgiveness is often framed as a political flashpoint. Yet the next wave of student loan forgiveness will occur largely through existing statutory programs.
If current projections hold, the Trump administration could oversee roughly $171.4 billion in forgiveness, one of the largest totals in American history.
And the story likely does not involve sweeping executive action or lawsuits. Instead, it reflects the long arc of federal programs coming due.
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